The rapid collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria this past week, after more than a decade of civil war, came as a shock to many who had perceived Assad as a fixture in Middle Eastern politics (albeit weakened by his reliance on Russian and Iranian support). 

The Syrian Arab Republic had been under the Assad family's rule since 1971, a totalitarian regime characterised by a pervasive personality cult, militaristic control, and an extensive security apparatus. The brutal crackdown on Arab Spring protests in 2011, met with further repression and violence, led to the outbreak of civil war, and cemented the regime's image as a brutal dictatorship. This prolonged conflict led to widespread devastation, with hundreds of thousands of casualties, massive displacement, and a crippled economy. By 2024, an estimated 90% of the Syrian population was living below the poverty line, further challenging support for the regime.  

The Syrian army, once a formidable force, was troubled by low morale and defections, ultimately crumbling in the face of the rebel offensive. Combined with the withdrawal of support from key allies, particularly Russia, due to their preoccupation with the war in Ukraine, this left the regime vulnerable and exposed the hollowness of its power. Alternatively, the rebel coalition, led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), presented a ore united and potent force than in previous years, capitalising on the regime's weakness and popular discontent.  

The rebels were able to swiftly capture strategic cities like Homs, securing crucial transportation routes and dealing a symbolic blow to the regime. The subsequent siege and capture of Damascus, marked by widespread celebrations and the looting of regime symbols, epitomised the rapid disintegration of Assad's authority. It was upon the fall of Damascus that Assad fled to Moscow. 

But where does this leave Syria now? This abrupt shift in power has created a new set of challenges and uncertainties. While the fall of Assad is widely celebrated by Syrians, the future remains unclear. HTS, with its Islamist background and previous affiliation with al-Qaeda, faces scrutiny from the international community; as their efforts to consolidate control include issuing amnesties, resuming public services, and securing oil facilities. The potential for instability and a new cycle of violence remains considerable, especially considering the presence of various armed groups and the ongoing interventions by external actors. Israel, for example, has seized the opportunity to expand its control in the Golan Heights, raising concerns about further regional destabilisation.  

Therefore, the Syria crisis enters a new phase marked by both hope and apprehension. The challenge now lies in navigating a complex political transition, addressing the deep-seated grievances of the Syrian people, and preventing the country from descending into further chaos. The international community's response, particularly its engagement with the new ruling forces, will play a crucial role in shaping Syria's future. Whether Syria can transition towards a more inclusive and peaceful order remains to be seen. 

By: Nina Brandler